Want to be in the loop?
subscribe to
our notification
Business News
VIETNAM"S ECONOMIC RECOVERY FORECAST TO BE ON TRACK
Vietnam’s real GDP would grow by 2.6 percent in 2020 and hit an 8.2 percent rebound next year, Fitch Solutions has forecast.
Vietnam’s real GDP would grow by 2.6 percent in 2020 and hit an 8.2 percent rebound next year, Fitch Solutions has forecast.
According to a report released on October 1, the UK-based financial information services provider said its forecast continued to reflect its view for Vietnam’s economic recovery to gain steam in the final quarter and into 2021, supported by manufacturing, construction and services.
“Accordingly, we forecast real GDP to stage a strong rebound to 8.2 percent in 2021, assuming freer international movement of persons, which would support a tourism rebound and better containment success externally for most of the year, especially in major export destinations for Vietnam such as the US and Europe, which would support external demand,” it said.
“We expect growth of the industrial and construction sectors, which accounts for about 35 percent of GDP combined, to only strengthen slightly in the final quarter.”
According to the General Statistics Office, growth in the industrial sector increased to 2.3 percent year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q3 2020, from 1.1 percent y-o-y in Q2 2020, driven by a slight pick-up in manufacturing (17 percent of GDP) growth to 3.9 percent y-o-y from 3.4 percent y-o-y, and electricity, gas and water generation (4.8 percent of GDP) growth to 4.0 percent y-o-y from -0.1 percent y-o-y. The extractive sub-sector extended its contraction to 5.9 percent y-o-y in Q3 from 5.8 percent y-o-y amid a low oil price environment.
Fitch expects manufacturing growth to strengthen in the final quarter and into 2021 although a weak external economic environment could cap gains in this segment.
This is because the Vietnamese manufacturing sector is already extremely dependent on trade, with exports at almost 110 percent of GDP. While China, Vietnam’s second largest export destination, appears to be showing promising signs of a V-shaped economic recovery following effective containment of its domestic COCID-19 outbreak, other large exports destinations such as the US, Japan and the Eurozone countries are set to face economic contractions in 2020 with the US and major European countries in particular facing a resurgence of infections domestically, which clouds Vietnam’s export growth outlook.
As for the industrial and construction sectors, which account for about 35 percent of GDP combined, Fitch expects them to only strengthen slightly in the final quarter. Growth in the construction sector (5.6 percent of GDP) strengthened to 5.7 percent y-o-y in Q3 2020 from 4.7 percent in Q2 2020.
“We believe that public efforts such as the change in financing methods for three sub-projects under the Eastern North-South expressway project from public-private partnerships (PPP) to public investments has accelerated the progress of these sub-projects.”
Fitch forecast the recovery in services (42 percent of GDP) growth to continue in the final quarter and into 2021. The services sector as a whole grew by 2.8 percent y-o-y in Q3 2020, rebounding from -1.9 percent y-o-y in Q2 2020.
This was mainly due to the lifting of domestic movement and travel restrictions which allowed for some normalisation of economic activity and domestic tourism to support sub-sectors such as retail, hotels and restaurants, transport and warehousing, with financial services growth rising in line with the general economic recovery.
Despite Fitch’s positivity on the services sector’s recovery prospects, it continued to flag that a strong recovery to trend growth of about 7 percent for the services sector would still be some way off with a shortage of international tourist arrivals. This was as long as international travel remained subject to heavy restrictions as well as Vietnam’s suspension on the entry of international tourists since March 22 remained in effect to limit the spread of COVID-19.
Finally, Fitch said growth in the ‘agriculture, forestry and fisheries sector (14 percent of GDP) would remain fairly low and stable so long as cultivation did not experience any major supply shocks from bad weather, and thus should not deliver a material change to headline growth.
Source: VIR
Related News
Q1 2024: 51.3 MILLION WORKERS EMPLOYED
51.3 million people in Vietnam aged 15 and above were employed during the first quarter of 2024, an increase of 174,100 compared to 2023, or 0.34 percent. The unemployment rate among the country’s working-age population has fallen by 2.24% compared to the same period last year.
FOUR COMMODITIES POST Q1 EXPORT VALUE OF OVER 5 BILLION USD
The total export turnover of agricultural, forestry, and fisheries products in the first three months of 2024 is estimated to reach 13.53 billion USD, an increase of 21.8% compared to the same period of 2023.
MOIT PROPOSES SCHEME TO BOOST RENEWABLE ENERGY PROCUREMENT
The proposed Direct Power Purchase Agreement (DDPA) mechanism, outlined in the draft decree, targets organisations and individuals consuming electricity from the 22kV power grid or higher, with a monthly consumption averaging 500,000kWh. However, residential households are excluded from direct procurement.
REAL ESTATE BONDS PLACE PRESSURE ON ISSUING FIRMS
The ministry’s recent report underscores concerns within Vietnam’s corporate bond market for 2023 and 2024. It emphasizes the critical need to address hindrances to the real estate sector in line with the objectives provided in Government Resolution No. 33/NQ-CP, which aims to stabilize the industry.
DA NANG CUSTOMS FOCUSES ON DEVELOPING CUSTOMS-BUSINESS PARTNERSHIPS
Da Nang Customs Department issued an action plan for developing customs-business partnership in 2024. One of the new events this year is the workshop on “Settlement reports for enterprises engaged in outsourcing, export production and export processing” held in Da Nang Customs Department on April 16, 2024.
OVERCOMING HURDLES IN SUSTAINABLE INDUSTRIAL AND ECONOMIC ZONE DEVELOPMENT
“The path toward sustainable development for industrial zones (IZs) and economic zones (EZs) continues to encounter significant challenges. A notable concern is the instability and lack of consistency in the institutions and policies governing these zones. This inconsistency has resulted in a void of transformative impetus for socio-economic advancement,” said Dr. Nguyen Quang Tuyen from Hanoi Law University.