CIEM ISSUES TWO SCENARIOS FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH FOR 2021

The Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) introduced two scenarios for Vietnam’s economic growth 2021 during a seminar held in Hanoi on January 15.

The event was co-hosted by the CIEM and the Australia Supports Economic Reform in Vietnam (Aus4Reform).

Accordingly, Vietnam could achieve a growth rate of 5.98 percent in the first scenario and 6.46 percent in the second scenario. The average inflation was estimated at 3.51 percent and 3.78 percent, respectively.

Export was expected to grow by 4.23 percent in the first scenario and 5.06 percent in the second scenario. Trade surplus was forecast to stand at US$5.49 billion and US$7.24 billion, respectively.

Nguyen Anh Duong, head of the CIEM's General Research Department, said the forecast is based on several risks in 2021, including COVID-19 vaccine accessibility, uneven economic recovery in partner markets, monetary loosening in several Asian nations and more trade defence measures in importing nations.

CIEM experts said the domestic economy will be affected by several factors this year such as the fourth Industrial Revolution and the rapid development of digital transformation, as well as stronger consumption demand.

According to them, Vietnam could face trade defence lawsuits and investigations on tax avoidance and origin fraud not only in the US market.

They stressed that it is necessary to focus on improving macro-economic foundation and reforming economic institutional system in combination with effectively dealing with risks in the “new normal” context.

Integration, reform and sustainable development must be closely intertwined, CIEM Director Tran Thi Hog Minh said.

Experts discussed macro-economic situation in the last half of 2020 and the whole year, economic prospect for 2021, proposed orientations to economic reform as well as measures for macro-economic management for 2021.

Source: VCCI