CREDIT INSTITUTIONS FORECAST BANK CREDIT TO INCREASE BY 4.4% IN Q1 2024

Outstanding loans of the banking system are forecast to increase by 4.4 per cent in the first quarter of 2024, according to the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV)’s survey of business trends of credit institutions in the first quarter of 2024.

Under the latest survey released last week, credit institutions forecast the rise of the outstanding loans in the whole year of 2024 would be 14.2 per cent, 0.4 percentage points higher than the forecast in the previous survey.

Under the survey, credit institutions also predicted deposit and lending interest rates to continually decrease slightly by 0.3-0.4 percentage points on average in the first quarter of 2024, and by 0.2 percentage points in the whole 2024.

Credit institutions also forecast that customers' demand for banking services would improve in the first quarter of 2024, but the rising rate would be lower than that in the fourth quarter of 2023. However, the demand in the whole of 2024 would improve more strongly. Notably, loan demand was expected to increase to higher than deposit demand, which would be different from 2023 when deposit demand was higher than credit demand.

The survey also showed the banking system's liquidity in the fourth quarter of 2023 continued to maintain a good state and improved more than expected. Credit institutions said the liquidity situation in 2023 was more abundant than in 2022, and they forecast it would continue to be abundant in the first quarter of 2024 and the whole year 2024.

Capital mobilisation across the credit institution system was expected to increase by an average of 2.6 per cent in the first quarter of 2024 and by 12.1 per cent in 2024, equivalent to expectations in the previous survey.

As for bad debts, credit institutions expected bad debt to slightly decrease in the first quarter of 2024 after inching up in the fourth quarter of 2023.

Under the latest survey, the business performance and pre-tax profit of the banking system in the fourth quarter of 2023 improved slightly compared to the previous quarter, but was much lower than the expected level recorded in the previous survey.

Of which, 78.6 per cent of credit institutions estimated their pre-tax profit in 2023 to grow positively compared to the previous year; 17.9 per cent of credit institutions estimated negative profit growth; and 3.6 per cent estimated no change.

Credit institutions expected their business performance to be better from the first quarter of 2024 and the whole year 2024, but pre-tax profit might recover more slowly than business performance.

Source: VNS

Related News

VIETNAM ECONOMY INVESTMENT

AGRICULTURAL, FORESTRY AND FISHERY EXPORTS REACH NEARLY $49.3 BILLION AFTER EIGHT MONTHS

Asia remained Việt Nam’s largest export market, accounting for 45.5 per cent of total market share, with exports to the region increasing 11.3 per cent year on year. Việt Nam’s agricultural, forestry and fishery exports totaled nearly US$49.3 billion in the first eight months of this year, up 7 per cent year on year, maintaining growth momentum despite divergent trends among major product groups.

Sep 09, 2026

BANKING / FINANCE / INSURANCE / TAX

BANK DEPOSITS OVERTAKE CREDIT GROWTH IN LATE AUGUST

Vietnamese đồng deposits at banks grew faster than credit by late August, reversing a trend seen earlier this year and easing some short-term liquidity pressure, although banks continue to face high funding costs amid strong demand for loans. Speaking at the Government’s regular meeting, Trần Quốc Phương, deputy minister of finance, said that as of August 22, Vietnamese đồng deposits at credit institutions had increased 8.77 per cent from the beginning of the year, slightly exceeding the 8.38 per cent growth in Vietnamese đồng lending.

Sep 09, 2026

VIETNAM ECONOMY INVESTMENT

FOREIGN CAPITAL SEEKS STRONGER FOOTHOLD IN VIỆT NAM THROUGH M&A

Foreign investors carried out 1,815 capital contribution and share purchase transactions in Việt Nam in the first seven months of 2026, with total capital exceeding $6.5 billion. While the number of transactions fell 8.4 per cent year-on-year, their value rose 61.6 per cent. Rather than investing from scratch to build new production facilities, many foreign investors are choosing to acquire stakes in existing Vietnamese companies as a faster way to establish a foothold in the market.

Sep 09, 2026

GARMENT / TEXTILE

MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION RISES AT FASTEST PACE IN JUST OVER TWO YEARS

Growth in the Vietnamese manufacturing sector continued to strengthen midway through the third quarter of the year. The S&P Global Vietnam Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) posted 53.3 points in August, up from 52.9 points in July and above the 50.0 no-change mark for the fourteenth consecutive month. The latest strengthening of business conditions in the sector, as revealed on September 3, was the most pronounced since February.

Sep 09, 2026

TECHNOLOGY

TECHNOLOGY, INNOVATION DRIVE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY TOWARDS HIGHER-VALUE GROWTH

Technological innovation, automation and digital transformation are becoming central to the chemical industry as companies seek to move towards higher-value products, strengthen domestic technological capabilities and pursue greener, more sustainable production. The shift is being accelerated by Politburo Resolution No. 57-NQ/TW on breakthroughs in science, technology, innovation and national digital transformation, alongside Việt Nam's chemical industry development strategy to 2030 with a vision to 2040.

Sep 09, 2026

VIETNAM ECONOMY INVESTMENT

FDI INFLOWS RISE 55.4 PER CENT ON YEAR

According to the Foreign Investment Agency under the Ministry of Finance, total foreign direct investment (FDI) registered in Vietnam reached $40.63 billion as of August 31, up 55.4 per cent year-on-year. All three components – newly registered capital, additional capital injected into existing projects, and foreign investors’ capital contributions and share purchases – recorded increases.

Sep 09, 2026