EXPORT FIGURES BUCK GLOBAL TRADE TRENDS

Exports continue to gain ground in Vietnam, reinforcing confidence that the growth goal for 2025 is realistic, despite tariff tussles, shifting global demand, and rising sustainability pressures.

At the headquarters of Thanh Cong Textile Investment Trading, the production floor is running at full speed - sewing lines and packaging units are working overtime to complete orders for the fourth quarter, the critical period serving the year-end festive season. Although the new tariff rates set by the US pose significant difficulties, the company remains cautiously optimistic.

“The fourth quarter is always decisive for apparel exporters. Importers in the US are beginning to stabilise their plans despite policy changes. We expect stronger orders towards the year-end,” a company representative said.

This confidence is echoed in other export-oriented industries. Fisheries and wood exporters are actively seeking new orders to offset earlier disruptions. According to Ngo Sy Hoai, vice chairman and general secretary of the Vietnam Timber and Forest Products Association, the support of trade counsellors abroad in connecting Vietnamese exporters with international buyers will be a vital factor in maintaining export momentum in the months ahead.

“Vietnamese wood enterprises remain confident that, with market diversification and quality improvements, export growth can continue on a positive trajectory,” Hoai said.

Statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment showed that the agricultural, forestry, and fishery sector generated $45.37 billion in export revenue in the first eight months of 2025, up 12 per cent on-year. Crop-based products alone contributed $24.42 billion, growing nearly 14 per cent, while aquaculture added $7.03 billion, up 11.5 per cent. Forestry products accounted for $11.9 billion, rising 6.6 per cent, and livestock exports expanded 24.5 per cent to $410.7 million.

Asia remained Vietnam’s largest agricultural export market with a 43.1 per cent share, followed by the Americas with 23.2 per cent and Europe with 14.6 per cent. Exports to Africa and Oceania, although still small in proportion, also grew.

Truong Van Cam, vice chairman and general secretary of the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association, said the industry continued to show positive signals. “Currently, Vietnamese textiles have expanded to 132 countries and territories. At the same time, the industry is also developing domestic raw materials to secure supply and meet rules of origin under free trade agreements, enabling exporters to fully benefit from tariff preferences,” Cam said.

According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, Vietnam’s total trade volume in the first eight months reached $597.93 billion, a 16.3 per cent increase compared to the same period in 2024. Exports accounted for $305.96 billion, up 14.8 per cent, while imports stood at $291.97 billion, up 17.9 per cent, producing a trade surplus of $13.9 billion.

This strong surplus reinforces Vietnam’s position in global trade at a time when many economies are struggling with inflationary pressure and supply chain disruptions. Key export drivers include computers, electronics, garments, and toys, alongside robust industrial production, with the manufacturing index in August alone rising nearly 9 per cent on-year.

However, challenges remain. The latest Purchasing Managers’ Index by S&P Global reported that while Vietnam’s manufacturing output increased for the fourth consecutive month in August, the pace slowed due to weakening demand. The newly introduced US tariffs are a critical factor, adding further headwinds for exporters already navigating high input costs.

At the same time, rice exporters are confronting another hurdle: the Philippines, Vietnam’s largest rice buyer, suspended imports for 60 days starting September 1, creating fresh uncertainty in one of Vietnam’s most important staple export sectors.

To achieve the 12 per cent export growth target for 2025, Vietnam needs to average $37.9 billion in monthly export value for the remainder of the year. Historical trends suggest that the final months are generally more favourable for production and trade due to increased global consumption around the festive season.

Source: VIR