INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS FORECAST STRONG GROWTH FOR VIETNAM IN 2021

Many international organizations have forecast robust economic recovery for Vietnam in 2021.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Vietnam’s economy to grow 6.5 percent in 2021 despite some economic scarring.

In its 2020 Article IV Consultation report with Vietnam, the IMF said the country’s growth is projected to strengthen to 6.5 percent, as normalisation of economic activity continues, businesses recover, and private consumption and business investment rebound.

Per the report, manufacturing and retail sales are expected to lead the recovery, while the travel and hospitality services will remain subdued. Net exports will continue to contribute positively to growth as external demand picks up.

Economic scarring due to disruptions to domestic activity and the labour market will temporarily weigh on potential growth as labour re-allocation gradually takes place, and capital stays idle in the hardest-hit sectors.

The Standard Chartered Bank has forecast Vietnam’s economy will grow at 7.8 percent this year with manufacturing driving the revival.

Meanwhile, a preliminary assessment by the ASEAN 3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) said the nation’s GDP growth will rebound to 7 percent this year, driven by a recovery in external demand, a resilient domestic economy, and increased production capacity.

Market researcher Fitch Solutions expects that Vietnam’s economy will grow 6.5 percent each year over the course of the next 10 years as the Government diversifies export markets and improves infrastructure.

Source: VIR