VIETNAM EXPORTS MAINTAIN ROBUST GROWTH

Vietnam’s export-import sector remains a key economic pillar in early 2025. Aiming for a 12-14% increase in export turnover compared to 2024 and a trade surplus of US$30 billion as outlined in Resolution 25/NQ-CP, Vietnam sets its sights on a promising growth path, requiring trong government-business cooperation.

Shrimp exports are expected to sustain high prices throughout 2025

Export highlights

Statistics from the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) revealed that total export-import turnover for the first two months of 2025 reached approximately US$126.7 billion. Exports hit US$64.3 billion, up 8.4% from the same period in 2024. The trade balance maintained a surplus of US$1.9 billion, lower than the US$5.13 billion recorded a year earlier, but still a positive signal amid a fluctuating global trade environment.

The domestic economic sector achieved a 12.8% export growth rate, outpacing the FDI sector’s 6.7%. This shift reflects a dynamic evolution in Vietnam’s economic structure and the growing strength of local enterprises. Key export categories, including textiles (up 9.3%), footwear (up 10.3%), and notably computers, electronics, and components (up 25.3%), remain vital drivers bringing Vietnamese brands closer to global consumers.

The agriculture, forestry and fisheries sector also made a strong mark, with February 2025 exports estimated at US$4.4 billion, a 37.2% surge year-on-year, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment. This success reflects the allure of Vietnamese agricultural products and opens significant opportunities to diversify export offerings moving forward.

Vietnam boasts an extensive free trade network, with 19 signed free trade agreements (FTAs), 17 of which are in effect. These agreements provide a solid foundation for accessing major markets like the EU, US, Japan, South Korea and ASEAN with attractive tariff benefits. Experts urge businesses to enhance product quality, streamline logistics and tap into underexplored markets such as the Middle East, India and Africa to fully capitalize on FTA advantages.

Nguyen Anh Son, Director General of the Import-Export Department at the MoIT, said: “To hit the 12-14% export growth target, Vietnam needs to achieve monthly exports of around US$38 billion, an increase of over US$4 billion from 2024. This is entirely feasible by leveraging FTAs effectively and harnessing domestic business potential.” He expressed confidence that business agility, paired with government support, will propel Vietnam’s export ambitions forward.

Adapting flexibly to global trade war

The year 2025 promises a vibrant global trade scene, with economic recovery in certain regions and shifting supply chains. Despite uncertainties like protectionist policies and geopolitical tensions, Vietnam holds a strategic position to seize emerging opportunities. Trade expert Vu Vinh Phu noted: “Rather than relying solely on traditional markets like the US, EU and China, Vietnamese firms can explore new regions with rising consumer demand. Investing in modern logistics will also cut costs and boost product competitiveness.”

The return of US President Donald Trump for a second term brings both prospects and hurdles for Vietnam’s exports. His focus on domestic manufacturing and high tariffs on imports from rivals like China could accelerate production shifts to countries like Vietnam, which offers competitive labor costs and a broad FTA network. This positions Vietnam to ramp up exports to the US, particularly in electronics, textiles and footwear.

Yet, Trump’s trade war agenda carries risks. US protectionism may intensify trade defense measures, such as anti-dumping duties or origin fraud probes, targeting Vietnamese goods if perceived as a conduit for Chinese products evading tariffs. Vietnam's reliance on the US market exposes it to trade risks. Businesses must diversify and ensure compliance with US standards.

Another critical angle is the indirect fallout from the US-China trade conflict. As China grapples with US tariffs, its goods may flood alternative markets, including Vietnam, intensifying competition for local firms striving to retain export market share. This pressures Vietnam to swiftly enhance product value, steering clear of a price-cutting race with competitors.

Efforts to achieve export goals

To realize export targets, the MoIT is rolling out robust support measures. Deputy Minister Phan Thi Thang affirmed that regular briefings with Vietnam’s overseas trade offices will keep market insights current, while flexible response strategies address global shifts. “We are committed to partnering with businesses, resolving export-import bottlenecks, and expanding access to promising markets,” she emphasized.

Nguyen Anh Son advised industry associations and firms to proactively analyze market demand and absorption capacity to craft tailored export strategies. The ministry is also working with trade defense units to shield businesses from anti-dumping lawsuits and origin fraud risks, safeguarding Vietnam’s goods reputation.

Vu Vinh Phu highlighted logistics as the “lifeblood” of export activities. “Investing in logistics infrastructure, shortening transit times and lowering costs will elevate Vietnamese goods against international rivals. Firms should also leverage technology to streamline operations and reach customers,” he recommended.

Source: VCCI